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Wednesday, November 2, 2016
Thursday, October 13, 2016
Economic Base Analysis and urban land growth patterns for San Antonio-New Braunfels Metropolitan Statistical Area
Introduction:
Downtown San Antonio from the Tower of the Americas by Carol Highsmith, 2005 (LOC)
Map of Texas highlighting the San Antonio Metropolitan Statistical Area; created with the GIMP; made by User:Acntx.
Economic Base Analysis:
Workers in the San Antonio-New Braunfels Metropolitan Statistical Area had an average (mean) hourly wage of $21.03 in May 2015, about 9 percent below the nationwide average of $23.23, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Regional Commissioner Stanley W. Suchman noted that, after testing for statistical significance, wages in the local area were lower than their respective national averages in 15 of the 22 major occupational groups, including personal care and service; construction and extraction; and legal. No major occupational group in the local area had wages that were measurably higher than their respective national averages. When compared to the nationwide distribution, San Antonio employment was more highly concentrated in 5 of the 22 occupational groups including office and administrative support; food preparation and serving related; and personal care and service. Conversely, nine groups had employment shares significantly below their national representation, including production; management; and transportation and material moving. (See table A and box note at end of release.) [2]
Figure 01. 2015 Occupational employment
Figure 02. 2010 Occupational employment
Figure 03. 2010-2015 multiplier
Figure 04. San Antonio-New Braunfels MSA population forecast [3]
1. Use the forecast Population increase rate to calculate the population increase in 2016 (next year):
2,394,156 * 8.12% = 194,405
2. Use the PER to calculate the population employment increase in 2016 (next year):
194,405 / 2.51660 = 77,249
3.Use the dynamic economic base multiplier to calculate the basic job growth in 2016 (next year):
77,249 / 5.51641 = 14,004
The San Antonio metro region had the sixth-fastest growth rate in the country among metros with a population of 1 million or more, growing by 2.2 percent, from 2,332,790 to 2,384,075 people last year. The metro area includes Bexar, Atascosa, Bandera, Comal, Guadalupe, Kendall, Medina and Wilson counties.[4]
A new analysis by Pitney Bowes Software has plotted out the growth of the country’s largest metropolitan areas for the next five years. The good news is the San Antonio/New Braunfels metro area is primed to see quite a few new households. All told, between 2012 and 2017, the number of households for the San Antonio/New Braunfels area is expected to grow by 55,017 — going from a total of 776,007 households as of 2012, to a projected 831,024 households by 2017, an increase of 7.1 percent. That projected growth has earned the San Antonio/New Braunfels metro the No. 5 spot on Pitney Bowes Software’s list of the Top 50 Major Metro Areas, as ranked by projected percentage growth. As part of the household growth analysis, Pitney Bowes Software also created a list of the Top 50 Major Metro Areas, as ranked by projected absolute growth. At an expected increase of 55,017 households, the San Antonio/New Braunfels area took the No. 8 spot. In fact, the San Antonio/New Braunfels metro area was one of several Texas areas that ranked in the top 10 on both of the Pitney Bowes Software lists. [5]
Shift-share Analysis:
Comparing with the EBA result, the employment growth in San Antonio-New Braunfels MSA from 2010 to 2015 is 115,020.
[6] [7] In my opinion, it’s always good to live in a growing city. It’s a vibrant economy, a diverse economy, so that’s something that bring me long-term comfort.
Reference:
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_San_Antonio[2] http://www.bls.gov/regions/southwest/news-release/occupationalemploymentandwages_sanantonio.htm
[3] http://www.sanantonioedf.com/living/demographics/
[4] http://www.expressnews.com/news/local/article/San-Antonio-area-is-No-6-in-population-growth-in-7030115.php
[5] http://www.veramenditx.com/tag/san-antonionew-braunfels-msa/
[6] All national employment data is from http://www.bls.gov/oes/#data
[7] All Occupational Employment Statistics of San Antonio-New Braunfels MSA is from http://www.bls.gov/oes/tables.htm
All calculation is done in Excel By Zhihuang Li (myself)
Sunday, May 1, 2016
Saturday, April 30, 2016
A Real Estate Project Ended In Disaster——Pruitt–Igoe
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pruitt%E2%80%93Igoe#/media/File:Pruitt-Igoe-overview.jpg
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/98/Pruitt-igoe_collapse-series.jpg
If you propose to build a high-rise public housing project in the United States, your competitors will certainly take Pruitt–Igoe community as a weapon to fight back, and you will be totally defeated.
Pruitt–Igoe was a large urban housing project first occupied in 1954 in the U.S. city of St. Louis, Missouri. It is a middle-class apartheid complex, including thirty-three 11-story buildings. Living conditions in Pruitt–Igoe began to decline soon after its completion in 1956. After less than a decade, it has become dilapidated warehouse, the only inhabitants are poor blacks. By the late 1960s, the complex had become internationally infamous for its poverty, crime, and segregation. It took less than two years for its completely demolished. Its 33 buildings were demolished with explosives in the mid-1970s, and the project has become an icon of urban renewal and public-policy planning failure.
Pruitt–Igoe community, this trouble is a failure of the building, failed policies, but also the failure of society. Its fate is closely related to the fate of many mid-20th century American cities. Other critics take this opportunity to attack the architect Minoru Yamasaki. They thought he was supercilious and too proud as a social engineering modernist, but cannot consider the needs of ordinary people. However, if think twice, you will find Minoru Yamasaki more like a victim.
After the "1949 Housing Law", this Japanese-American architect began to design this public housing projects in federal funding. Initially, Minoru Yamasaki wanted to design some highly unequal mixed construction. But the Public Housing Authority thought that this design cost too high. To save costs, Minoru Yamasaki changed the height of all buildings to 11 layers. At that time the Congress worried the Korean War a lot, which also made the construction requirements short. The complex had to use some low-quality and inexpensive equipment.
Although Pruitt - Igoe community originally built for the middle class. But not long after the completion, it has become a slum. This drastic change was because of bad timing. The beginning of the design, Missouri law still provided the isolation of public facilities. However, after the US Supreme Court in 1954 on the "Brown v. Board of Education case" judgment, this bill is the total abolition of isolation. Thereafter, the panic white residents chose to leave, Pruitt - Igoe community eventually became special ghettos. Among them, there were many black residents chose to move to the outskirts of the city. Ultimately staying in the community were the poor black residents who unable to leave.
The position of Pruitt - Igoe community in cultural history, was not as significant as its demolished moment. Commentators like to take it as an example to illustrate the various political events. Its demolished strengthened Americans' the fear of towering, high-density residential area, while this arrangement can be found everywhere in today's much more developed East Asian cities
Wednesday, April 27, 2016
If I had to select one city to develop in......
If I had to select one city to develop in, I would like choose Dallas.
http://static1.squarespace.com/static/55e72848e4b07d5e3db159f8/t/55e72ea2e4b08a87a193945b/1441214122315/dallas-skyline.jpg?format=2500w
I lived in Dallas for 5 months. I also went to Houston a lot, especially the Chinatown Area. I traveled to some place in America as well, such as Austin, San Antonio, New York, Boston, Atlanta, New Orleans, Miami, Orlando, Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Diego, San Jose and so on. Having experienced these states, I like Texas most. Having experiences these cities and towns in Texas, I like Dallas most, at lease for now.
1. Big City, Big Opportunity
The Dallas-Forth Worth metroplex is the largest metropolitan area in the fourth-largest metropolitan in the United States. A lot of variety in Dallas. Living there I didn't get any anti-foreign feelings.
From the Website data, Dallas-Fort Worth contains the headquarters to 20 Fortune 500 companies, and 5 Global Fortune 500 Companies.
2. Better Weather
OK, I know Dallas had hail twice this month. But I still like the weather in Dallas. Dallas has a greater temperature amplitude than other big cities, so I can actually feel the real difference between a blazing summer and a chilling winter, just like my hometown in China.
3. Better Traffic
Every time I went to Houston, I need to leave earlier because of the traffic jam. The traffic in Houston is a disaster. In Dallas, I can't say there is no traffic jam, but the condition is much better. And the road is designed easier to find the way.
In addition, the Public transportation is good in Dallas, comparing to the other big city in Texas. The Dallas Area Rapid Transit (so aptly named “DART”) is really convenient.
In conclusion, I wish I could have a chance to work and live in Dallas.
The Urban Growth Patterns In College Station
Since I had my Master of Landscape Architecture Degree in TAMU from 2012, I have been this town for almost four years. Great changes have taken place in the town in the last four years. Construction sites are everywhere. More and more apartments and houses are built.
Last week, we have a guest lecture from a staff from City of College Station. He said the direction of College Station development is South. A lot of development is going on in that direction. There is a Medical District which is the second largest employer in CS. More retail and residential projects will be developed around Medical District.
Then I searched the City of College Station Demographic Report. The data is shown that the size of College Station has increased significantly since its incorporation.
“Between 1938 and 1939, College Station’s boundaries extended from the Northgate District, through Texas A&M University’s Main Campus (and shortly after, annexing the Eastgate Area Neighborhood), and ending its southern boundary in the Southside Area Neighborhood. Significant annexations have occurred in past decades. The most significant land acquisitions occurred between 1950 and 1960, 1960 and 1970, and 1990 and 2000. The portions of the College Station that were incorporated during these decades were:
1950 and 1960: Portions of land surrounding the east bypass to the northern City limit, including Plantation Oaks Subdivision to the east and Wolf Pen to the west;
1960 and 1970: Large portions of land extending from Texas Avenue to Wellborn Road, bounded by Southwest Parkway and Harvey Mitchell Parkway, including the South Knoll Area Neighborhood and Southwood Valley;
1990 and 2000: Areas south of Rock Prairie Road, including regions as far east as portions of Pebble Creek Subdivision and as far west as Edelweiss and Castlegate Subdivisions.
The most recent annexation was in 2011 when College Station acquired the area known as the Wellborn community. There are no plans for future annexation.”
I take a look of Google Earth Map, which will have historical images. From the Google Earth Map, we can also verify the conclusion that the City of College Station staff made, the urban pattern is go to south direction.
Last week, we have a guest lecture from a staff from City of College Station. He said the direction of College Station development is South. A lot of development is going on in that direction. There is a Medical District which is the second largest employer in CS. More retail and residential projects will be developed around Medical District.
Then I searched the City of College Station Demographic Report. The data is shown that the size of College Station has increased significantly since its incorporation.
“Between 1938 and 1939, College Station’s boundaries extended from the Northgate District, through Texas A&M University’s Main Campus (and shortly after, annexing the Eastgate Area Neighborhood), and ending its southern boundary in the Southside Area Neighborhood. Significant annexations have occurred in past decades. The most significant land acquisitions occurred between 1950 and 1960, 1960 and 1970, and 1990 and 2000. The portions of the College Station that were incorporated during these decades were:
1950 and 1960: Portions of land surrounding the east bypass to the northern City limit, including Plantation Oaks Subdivision to the east and Wolf Pen to the west;
1960 and 1970: Large portions of land extending from Texas Avenue to Wellborn Road, bounded by Southwest Parkway and Harvey Mitchell Parkway, including the South Knoll Area Neighborhood and Southwood Valley;
1990 and 2000: Areas south of Rock Prairie Road, including regions as far east as portions of Pebble Creek Subdivision and as far west as Edelweiss and Castlegate Subdivisions.
The most recent annexation was in 2011 when College Station acquired the area known as the Wellborn community. There are no plans for future annexation.”
I take a look of Google Earth Map, which will have historical images. From the Google Earth Map, we can also verify the conclusion that the City of College Station staff made, the urban pattern is go to south direction.
The basic industry in CS is education, obviously. Here is some data from City of College Station Demographic Report:
In 2012, the top employers were:
Bryan ISD
College Station ISD
Reynolds and Reynolds
Sanderson Farms
St. Joseph Regional Hospital
Texas A&M University System
Brazos County
City of College Station
College Station Medical Center
In my view, the most valuable intersection is the intersection of Texas Avenue and University Drive. First of all, Texas Ave. and University Dr. are both main traffic in CS. Secondly, They are both connected to the Highway 6. Lastly, TAMU campus is at that corner.
Sunday, January 24, 2016
Favorite Development——Walt Disney World, Orlando, Florida
(12/12/2015,Magic Kingdom, Orlando, Florida)
The most fascinating, interesting, inspiring parcel of real estate from my perspective is the Theme Parks and Resorts in Walt Disney World in all over the world, especially in Orlando, Florida.
What makes this Walt Disney World so interesting and impressing to me is the new development idea. It was designed and built differently from the traditional theme park which just have some sets of rides. in design and scheme from Disneyland with its own diverse set of rides. Their also had a plan to build an "Experimental Prototype Community of Tomorrow". It is a planned community that served a recreation living style.
The development process is also very special and interesting. Because Walt Disney disliked the other property and industry that had sprung up around Disneyland, he wanted control of a much larger area of land for the new project, even the air right of the project area. To avoid the price of land go up, they bought the land in secret.
About Me
My Name is Zihuang Li,from China.My friends like to call me Amber because it's much easier than 'Zhihuang'. I have a master degree in Landscape Architecture and now I'm specialize in Land & Property Development. If everything goes well, I hope I can graduate in May 2017.
I like watching movies, cooking and travelling in my spare time. My favorite movie is The Shawshank Redemption. The actor's line, 'Fear can hold you prisoner, Hope can set you free.' inspired me a lot. I like cooking a lot and I think I'm good at cooking Chinese food mostly. I have been most of the province in China and some place in America. There is not a place I like mostly because I like the feeling on the way most.
As my undergraduate degree in Landscape gardening and my master degree in Landscape Architecture, I'm interested in design. However, I believed in MLPD I could have a new scope as a developer to do planning and design.
As I mentioned, I would like to know more about development. This class, in my opinion, could give my some knowledge about things like cash-flow, finance, economy, investment, etc. I also would like to learn how to think and make decisions as a developer, not just as a designer.
My short term career goal is to find a internship this coming summer and could find a full-time job in a development company after graduate. In 5 years I hope I could do well in this area. My long term career goal is to be a successful developer. Now I don't have a goal to have my own development company but maybe I will in the future.
I think there is nothing truly unique about me. If must say something, I will say I practiced Ballet for 8 years in my childhood but I remember little now.
Now only one thing on my Bucket List is to try parachute jumping once. To me this is a big challenge because I have serious acrophobia.
My favorite sites is https://www.youtube.com/. I love YouTube because I could learn everything on it.
(12/12/2015 Disneyland, Florida)
I like watching movies, cooking and travelling in my spare time. My favorite movie is The Shawshank Redemption. The actor's line, 'Fear can hold you prisoner, Hope can set you free.' inspired me a lot. I like cooking a lot and I think I'm good at cooking Chinese food mostly. I have been most of the province in China and some place in America. There is not a place I like mostly because I like the feeling on the way most.
As my undergraduate degree in Landscape gardening and my master degree in Landscape Architecture, I'm interested in design. However, I believed in MLPD I could have a new scope as a developer to do planning and design.
As I mentioned, I would like to know more about development. This class, in my opinion, could give my some knowledge about things like cash-flow, finance, economy, investment, etc. I also would like to learn how to think and make decisions as a developer, not just as a designer.
My short term career goal is to find a internship this coming summer and could find a full-time job in a development company after graduate. In 5 years I hope I could do well in this area. My long term career goal is to be a successful developer. Now I don't have a goal to have my own development company but maybe I will in the future.
I think there is nothing truly unique about me. If must say something, I will say I practiced Ballet for 8 years in my childhood but I remember little now.
Now only one thing on my Bucket List is to try parachute jumping once. To me this is a big challenge because I have serious acrophobia.
My favorite sites is https://www.youtube.com/. I love YouTube because I could learn everything on it.
(12/12/2015 Disneyland, Florida)
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